Do expenditures on public health reduce preventable mortality in the long run? Evidence from the Canadian provinces.

BACKGROUND: Investments in public health - prevention of illnesses, and promotion, surveillance, and protection of population health - may improve population health, however, effects may only be observed over a long period of time. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential long-run relationship between expenditures on public health and avoidable mortality from preventable causes. METHODS: We focused on the country spending the most on public health in the OECD, Canada. We constructed a longitudinal dataset on mortality, health care expenditures and socio-demographic information covering years 1979-2017 for the ten Canadian provinces. We estimated error correction models for panel data to disentangle short-from long-run relationships between expenditures on public health and avoidable mortality from preventable causes. We further explored some specific causes of mortality to understand potential drivers. For comparison, we also estimated the short-run relationship between curative expenditures and avoidable mortality from treatable causes. RESULTS: We find evidence of a long-run relationship between expenditures on public health and preventable mortality, and no consistent short-run associations between these two variables. Findings suggest that a 1% increase in expenditures on public health could lead to 0.22% decrease in preventable mortality. Reductions in preventable mortality are greater for males (-0.29%) compared to females (-0.09%). These results are robust to different specifications. Reductions in some cancer and cardiovascular deaths are among the probable drivers of this overall decrease. By contrast, we do not find evidence of a consistent short-run relationship between curative expenditures and treatable mortality, except for males. CONCLUSION: This study supports the argument that expenditures on public health reap health benefits primarily in the long run, which, in this case, represents a reduction in avoidable mortality from preventable causes. Reducing public health expenditures on the premise that they have no immediate measurable benefits might thus harm population health outcomes in the long run.

Prioritization of public health financing, organization, and workforce transformation: a Delphi study in Canada.

BACKGROUND: The increased scrutiny on public health brought upon by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic provides a strong impetus for a renewal of public health systems. This paper seeks to understand priorities of public health decision-makers for reforms to public health financing, organization, interventions, and workforce. METHODS: We used an online 3-round real-time Delphi method of reaching consensus on priorities for public health systems reform. Participants were recruited among individuals holding senior roles in Canadian public health institutions, ministries of health and regional health authorities. In Round 1, participants were asked to rate 9 propositions related to public health financing, organization, workforce, and interventions. Participants were also asked to contribute up to three further ideas in relation to these topics in open-ended format. In Rounds 2 and 3, participants re-appraised their ratings in the view of the group's ratings in the previous round. RESULTS: Eighty-six public health senior decision-makers from various public health organizations across Canada were invited to participate. Of these, 25/86 completed Round 1 (29% response rate), 19/25 completed Round 2 (76% retention rate) and 18/19 completed Round 3 (95% retention rate). Consensus (defined as more than 70% of importance rating) was achieved for 6 out of 9 propositions at the end of the third round. In only one case, the consensus was that the proposition was not important. Proposition rated consensually important relate to targeted public health budget, time frame for spending this budget, and the specialization of public health structures. Both interventions related and not related to the COVID-19 pandemic were judged important. Open-ended comments further highlighted priorities for renewal in public health governance and public health information management systems. CONCLUSION: Consensus emerged rapidly among Canadian public health decision-makers on prioritizing public health budget and time frame for spending. Ensuring that public health services beyond COVID-19 and communicable disease are maintained and enhanced is also of central importance. Future research shall explore potential trade-offs between these priorities.